Population Trends: Perception Vs. Probability

[dewline]

Yes, we're hitting the eight-billion mark in living humans this week. When I was starting grade school, I think we were at four billion.

Now, though, we have some debate over how difficult things are expected to become, how quickly, and in what ways exactly.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/8-billion-global-population-1.6646018

Comments

[mellowtigger]

I agree that this is the last high population marker that we'll cross, but I think the SARS-CoV-2 will be responsible for decreases. I notice on that article's chart that growth took a noticeable change after 2019. Part of it may have been behavioral (stressful changes leading to lower birth rates during uncertainty), but I suspect that excess deaths are also already involved. I claim that it will accelerate as younger people start dying, never reaching an age of procreation.

[dewline]

For the next couple of decades, I expect that you're probably correctly anticipating some of the future on this one. Horrifically so. And while that's going on, the climate derangement-induced deaths from other fronts will kick in as well.

[sabotabby]

Agreed. Add to this lower fertility rates and, on the good side, better access to birth control.

But mainly covid and the various other viruses, air pollution, floods, hurricanes, droughts, and climate-change-induced war, and I don't think overpopulation is going to be a problem.

What will be a problem is an aging population (though this is overestimated due to falling life expectancy) with not enough young people to support elders. Most of these young people will have worse health outcomes and may not be in a position to work or act as caregivers.

[dewline]

*looks at the news from Poland today...and wants to see the nightmares resulting from that averted while still living in a better society than we started out with*

[dewline]

Was I thinking of Poland or Ukraine? Not sure now.